The houses are cheap because nobody is competing for them. That sentence appears in every regional brief we publish, and it is almost the entire economic story of the akiya market. But it is worth understanding why nobody is competing — the demographic math behind the listings — because the math is going to keep moving in the foreign buyer's favour for at least the next fifteen years.
The arithmetic
Japan's national population peaked at 128 million in 2008. It is now 122 million and falling at roughly 0.6% per year. The decline is national but profoundly uneven: Tokyo continues to grow. Osaka holds steady. Sapporo loses slowly. The countryside loses fast.
In rural prefectures, the annual rate of decline runs 1.0-1.8% — meaning a hamlet of 400 people in 2010 is now closer to 280. In specific villages, the rate is far higher. The five villages below have all lost more than 40% of their population since 2000.
Five villages worth knowing about
1. Sakae-mura, Nagano
Population 2000: 2,800. Population 2025: 1,650. The largest municipality in northern Nagano by area and one of the smallest by population. Heavy snowfall — over 4 metres a year — has done what depopulation alone couldn't, and there are kominka here selling for under ¥1M. The municipal office in 2024 launched an "ijuu" support program offering ¥1M grants to permanent relocators. We have placed two foreign buyers there.
2. Nikaho-shi, Akita
Population 2000: 32,000. Population 2025: 23,500. Coastal town in southern Akita, near Mt Chokai. Quiet market, low listing volume. Foreign-buyer record is essentially zero. The price discount is real but the municipal office is unprepared for foreign buyers. We recommend it only for buyers with Japanese partners.
3. Tomi-shi, Nagano
Population 2000: 33,000. Population 2025: 27,500. Modest decline by rural standards, but the town has gone out of its way to recruit ijuu residents — including foreign ones. Municipal grants up to ¥1.5M for permanent residents. English-friendly intake process. Easiest entry point of the five for a foreign buyer with no Japanese language.
4. Yokote-shi, Akita
Population 2000: 110,000. Population 2025: 84,000. The kamakura snow-festival town. Deep cultural infrastructure, working hospital and high school, regular bus service. The decline is steady but the town remains functional. Akiya bank is active and we estimate 3-4 foreign-buyer placements per year are now happening.
5. Furukawa, Hida-shi, Gifu
Population 2000: 17,000. Population 2025: 13,800. The quieter Takayama. Kominka stock equals Takayama's at half the price, but tourism inflows are growing fast as Takayama itself fills up. Window may be 5-10 years before prices normalize. We recommend acting sooner.
Why we still recommend these places
The risk of buying in a depopulating town is real: shrinking tax base, reduced services, school closures, the chance that the nearest hospital becomes a 90-minute drive. We have seen all of these happen in towns we cover.
The counter-argument is that the same forces that make these towns cheap make them welcoming. A village losing 20% of its population over a decade is more likely to greet a new permanent resident with help than a village that's growing. Tomi-shi's foreign-recruitment program exists because the town did the math: every permanent resident is worth more to the local economy than the listed house's price.
For buyers who want a working town and don't care about resale value, the depopulation curve is the offer. It will not improve. It will keep getting better.